BSH Report: The Science of Making You Believe that Mock Drafts...

BSH Report: The Science of Making You Believe that Mock Drafts...: People say to me all the time, "Yale, you have no life".  You know what I say to them?  "Yes, you are correct".  So, wit...

The Science of Making You Believe that Mock Drafts are Science

People say to me all the time, "Yale, you have no life".  You know what I say to them?  "Yes, you are correct".  So, with that in mind, here is my latest plunge into the empty pit of futility.  Lots of us get so caught up in the Mock Draft Reports of various "writers" and "reporters" because we believe THEY know what they are talking about.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  It is virtually impossible to know what 32 different GMs and Head Coaches and in some cases (Bengals, Cowboys) Owners, are thinking and what they will do on any given draft board, based on what those above them are going to do.
You can fool yourself, as I did for a few years into thinking you know what Ozzie or any other decision maker is going to do and what the Ravens or any other team "wants/ needs" out of a 1st round pick.  But the truth of the matter is, to quote a REAL football man, "You THINK you know, but you don't REALLY know".
To that end, I decided to look at one of the "better" Draft Experts, NFL Network's Mike Mayock, and examine HIS selections for each team in 2014 in the 1st round.  Now, Mayock is better than most because he only creates one Mock, and he releases it right before the actual Draft Day so that he can have as much information available to him as he can.  He goes to the Pro Days, he attends the Combine, he studies film, he is there at the Sr Bowl practices and the East West Shrine Bowl practices.  Mayock will interview scouts, players, college coaches and pro coaches to try and gather as much information on individual players as he can.  In his defense, I think Mike has the most accurate player assessments out there.  Where he falls short, as all Mock drafters fall short, is predicting how all 32 teams will make their choices, and how trades come into play.
Below is Mike Mayock's Mock, but after each of his guesses, I have included the actual pick for that selection and who made it.  In other words, though Mike guessed that Cleveland would pick Jake Matthews the OT from Texas Tech in the 4th round, he had no idea that they would trade that pick to Buffalo so that they in turn could draft Sammy Watkins.  Mayock was very close in saying that Watkins would be selected 5th overall, there was just no way he could have foretold that Buffalo would make the offer or that Cleveland would accept.  The Mocks are not science, they are not accurate, Hell, half the time they don't even make sense.  All they are is fun and somewhat interesting; I would hope by looking at this you too would see this.  Just from basic eyeballing the list, you can see that Mike Mayock only got 5 out of 32 picks correct.  Most people would call that a pretty shitty average, but in the exalted halls of Draft Mockery, Mike Mayock did pretty damned good.  And to be fair, in some cases, like with Derrek Carr and Oakland, he got the player and team right, just not the round or selection number.  What really galls me though?  People who are even worse at this than Mayock, get PAID to make these guesses leading up to the Draft, and they can freely change their selections, 2, 3, 4, sometimes, 7 times!!
Anyway, here is my Mike Mayock Mock Draft Report.  I hope you learn something from it.

PICK NO.1  HOU
JADEVEON CLOWNEY DE SOUTH CAROLINA
1 Texans  Jadeveon Clowney DE

PICK NO.2 STL
GREG ROBINSON OT AUBURN
2 Rams Greg Robinson OT

PICK NO.3  JAC
KHALIL MACK OLB BUFFALO
3 Jaguars  Blake Bortles QB

PICK NO.4  CLE
JAKE MATTHEWS OT TEXAS A&M
4 Bills  Sammy Watkins  WR

PICK NO.5  OAK
SAMMY WATKINS WR CLEMSON
5 Raiders  Khalil Mack OLB

PICK NO.6  ATL
TAYLOR LEWAN OT MICHIGAN
6 Falcons Jake Matthews  OT

PICK NO.7  TB
MIKE EVANS WR TEXAS A&M
7 Buccaneers  Mike Evans  WR

PICK NO.8  MIN
JUSTIN GILBERT CB OKLAHOMA ST.
8 Browns  Justin Gilbert  CB

PICK NO.9  BUF
ZACK MARTIN OT NOTRE DAME
9 Vikings  Anthony Barr  OLB

PICK NO.10 DET
DARQUEZE DENNARD CB MICHIGAN ST.
10 Lions  Eric Ebron TE

PICK NO.11 TEN
BLAKE BORTLES QB CENTRAL FLORIDA
11 Titans  Taylor Lewan  OT

PICK NO.12 NYG
ERIC EBRON TE NORTH CAROLINA
12  Giants  Odell Beckham  WR

PICK NO.13 STL
ODELL BECKHAM WR LSU
13  Rams  Aaron Donald  DT

PICK NO.14 CHI
CALVIN PRYOR FS LOUISVILLE
14  Bears  Kyle Fuller  CB

PICK NO.15 PIT
KYLE FULLER CB VIRGINIA TECH
15  Steelers  Ryan Shazier  OLB

PICK NO.16 DAL
JOHNNY MANZIEL QB TEXAS A&M
16  Cowboys  Zack Martin  OT

PICK NO.17 BAL
C.J. MOSLEY ILB ALABAMA
Mosley is a great fit for the Ravens -- an inside linebacker who played in a 3-4 at Alabama. He makes this defense better immediately.
17  Ravens  C.J. Mosley  ILB

PICK NO.18 NYJ
BRANDIN COOKS WR OREGON ST.
18  Jets  Calvin Pryor  FS

PICK NO.19 MIA
CYRUS KOUANDJIO OT ALABAMA
19  Dolphins  Ja'Wuan James  OT

PICK NO.20 ARI
ANTHONY BARR OLB UCLA
20  Saints  Brandin Cooks  WR

PICK NO.21 GB
RYAN SHAZIER OLB OHIO ST.
21  Packers  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix  FS

PICK NO.22 PHI
HA HA CLINTON-DIX FS ALABAMA
22  Browns  Johnny Manziel  QB

PICK NO.23 KC
MARQISE LEE WR USC
23  Chiefs  Dee Ford  DE

PICK NO.24 CIN
AARON DONALD DT PITTSBURGH
24  Bengals  Darqueze Dennard  CB

PICK NO.25 SD
BRADLEY ROBY CB OHIO ST.
25  Chargers  Jason Verrett  CB

PICK NO.26 CLE
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER QB LOUISVILLE
26  Eagles  Marcus Smith  OLB

PICK NO.27 NO
KELVIN BENJAMIN WR FLORIDA ST.
27  Cardinals  Deone Bucannon  SS

PICK NO.28 OAK
DEREK CARR QB FRESNO ST.
28  Panthers  Kelvin Benjamin  WR

PICK NO.29 NE
JACE AMARO TE TEXAS TECH
29  Patriots  Dominique Easley  DT

PICK NO.30 SF
STEPHON TUITT DE NOTRE DAME
30  49ers  Jimmie Ward  SS

PICK NO.31 DEN
JASON VERRETT CB TCU
31  Broncos  Bradley Roby  CB

PICK NO.32 SEA
STANLEY JEAN-BAPTISTE CB NEBRASKA
32  Vikings  Teddy Bridgewater  QB

M&T Bank Stadium in a snow storm

Minnesota Vikings bring the snow

BSH Report: Busting the Ozzie and The University of AlabamaCon...

BSH Report: Busting the Ozzie and The University of AlabamaCon...: Busting the Ozzie and The University of Alabama Connection Myth Yale Beverly Over the years, a lot has been written about Ozzie Newso...

Busting the Ozzie and The University of Alabama Connection Myth

Yale Beverly

Over the years, a lot has been written about Ozzie Newsome and his “affinity” for players from his alma mater, University of Alabama.  It seems, and many people will point to his drafting history, that Ozzie will always draft players from “The Tide” just he played there for Bear Bryant and graduated from the school.  While I am sure SOME of that is true, the real reason the Ravens seem to end up with very good players from the school Ozzie played for has a more recent historical bent.

Before we discuss the facts of this case, let’s go over a few particulars to explain why the conventional thinking is so far off base.  First off let’s detail his college career.  Ozzie was a great player for The Crimson Tide.  He was a four-year starter at Alabama.  Legendary coach, Paul Bear Bryant called Ozzie "the greatest end in Alabama history.  A total team player, fine blocker, outstanding leader, great receiver with concentration, speed, hands."  While playing for Alabama, Ozzie helped the Crimson Tide “roll” to a 42-6 record and three 11-1 seasons.  He caught 102 passes for 2,070 yards.  Alabama won three SEC championships with Ozzie playing Tight End and finished No. 2 in the country in 1977.  That history alone seems to be the reason people want to pin the “homer” label on the Ravens GM.  But we have to look deeper down the rabbit hole at those facts to see why this makes no sense.

This is the year 2014, and Ozzie has been away from the Alabama program for 37 years.  Bear Bryant has been gone from that program since 1982 and passed away in 1983.  There have been a plethora of coaches to try and carry on the Bear Bryant tradition since that time and while some have a connection to Bear Bryant and Ozzie from his playing days there, none really since Ozzie took the helm of the Ravens.  And since 1996, when Ozzie and the Ravens came to Baltimore, the draft history of the Ravens showed no real particular connection to Alabama.  That is, not until 2007.  In 2007 Ozzie used a 2^nd 4^th round pick to select 6 foot, 260 lb Running Back/ Full Back Le’Ron McClain from Alabama.  2007 was also the year that the Alabama football program was taken over by one Nick Saban; the same Nick Saban who was the Defensive Coordinator for the Cleveland Browns from 1991 -1994, under Bill Belichick.  Ozzie was drafted by the Browns in 1978 and played for them until 1990 when he retired.  Upon his retirement Ozzie asked team owner Art Modell for a job in the Browns front office.  In those days, Ozzie worked in the scouting and player development departments, learning his way up under Belichick and working side by side with guess who?  Nick Saban.  Say what you want about Bill Belichick, but he is a hands on kind of guy.  He likes to put the right people in place to do their jobs, learn from each other, and put all of that knowledge to use for the betterment of the team.  From talent evaluation to successful football operations, the Belichick “stamp” is all over the New England Patriots and it was formulated and fostered under those Cleveland Browns teams from 91-95.  Ozzie worked hand in hand with Nick Saban to help look for and identify players that Nick wanted for his Browns defenders and fit into the mold for that team. 

Since taking over the Alabama program, Saban has built a machine that is now the Crimson Tide, and won 3 National Championships mostly around a professional style Defense.  His players have to be tough, they have to be strong, but mostly they have to be smart players in order to play for him.  Ozzie is known for saying that he is looking for tough, strong, and intelligent players for the Ravens.  He wants kids who will “play like a Raven” and fit into what they are trying to do.  Ozzie will have his scouts scour the country for these types of players, and for the vast majority of tenure helming the team, Ozzie has been wildly successful working that plan.  So successful in fact that he has been in his role as GM of an NFL team through a franchise relocation, an ownership change, and 3 head coaching changes.  There are few if any GMs in the league or ANY league that can make that claim.  That kind of success is not because Ozzie has shown blind loyalty to his alma mater, it is because at its core, the NFL is a league of relationships built and relied on.  Ozzie has one such relationship with Nick Saban.  The Ravens grab players from any and every college like small Nicholls State to the bigger and more renown schools like Notre Dame and Alabama.  But with the exception of that 4^th round pick in 2007 for McClain, the Ravens have only drafted Defensive players from The Crimson Tide.  As I stated, these Nick Saban led teams are known for their Defense.  When Ozzie is looking for a player he knows will be tough, strong, and smart to plug into the Defensive tradition that the Ravens are known for; he has a pipeline he can tap into for advice, and insight.  Has every selection been spot on?  No.  But from the looks of his record and tenure with the Ravens, Ozzie will continue to find the right player for this team, and if a player from the Alabama Crimson Tide is what is needed and is available when the Ravens are on the clock, you can bet Ozzie and Nick have talked about the kid extensively and the confidence factor is high for the name on the card sent up to the commissioner to be the next Raven from that program.

It should also be noted that the Ravens continued interest and support of former Alabama player, Rolando McClain is probably also related to this connection.  Terrance Cody, another former Tide player whose career with the Ravens has been less than spectacular, was resigned to a one year “show us” contract this off season because of what he does bring to the table, SIZE, to help with the Ravens run defense.  If body language and demeanor means anything, Cody’s contract signing presser showed that he had a long conversation with Ozzie and probably Nick Saban as well.  If you want to keep playing in the NFL young man, step it up now, and you can write your own ticket to either stay a Raven, or move on somewhere else.  But it is clear, if Ozzie was not the GM, and had a relationship with his college coach, Cody would not have even been offered this deal.

Ravens who have been drafted out of Alabama:

• ž   Ralph Staten DB 7^th Rd 1997 
• ž   Terry Jones TE 5^th Rd 2002
• ž   Jarret Johnson DE 4^th Rd 2003
• ž   Le’Ron McClain RB 4^th Rd 2007
• ž   Terrance Cody DT 2^nd Rd 2010
• ž   Courtney Upshaw LB 2^nd Rd 2012