People say to me all the time, "Yale, you have no life". You know what I say to them? "Yes, you are correct". So, with that in mind, here is my latest plunge into the empty pit of futility. Lots of us get so caught up in the Mock Draft Reports of various "writers" and "reporters" because we believe THEY know what they are talking about. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is virtually impossible to know what 32 different GMs and Head Coaches and in some cases (Bengals, Cowboys) Owners, are thinking and what they will do on any given draft board, based on what those above them are going to do.
You can fool yourself, as I did for a few years into thinking you know what Ozzie or any other decision maker is going to do and what the Ravens or any other team "wants/ needs" out of a 1st round pick. But the truth of the matter is, to quote a REAL football man, "You THINK you know, but you don't REALLY know".
To that end, I decided to look at one of the "better" Draft Experts, NFL Network's Mike Mayock, and examine HIS selections for each team in 2014 in the 1st round. Now, Mayock is better than most because he only creates one Mock, and he releases it right before the actual Draft Day so that he can have as much information available to him as he can. He goes to the Pro Days, he attends the Combine, he studies film, he is there at the Sr Bowl practices and the East West Shrine Bowl practices. Mayock will interview scouts, players, college coaches and pro coaches to try and gather as much information on individual players as he can. In his defense, I think Mike has the most accurate player assessments out there. Where he falls short, as all Mock drafters fall short, is predicting how all 32 teams will make their choices, and how trades come into play.
Below is Mike Mayock's Mock, but after each of his guesses, I have included the actual pick for that selection and who made it. In other words, though Mike guessed that Cleveland would pick Jake Matthews the OT from Texas Tech in the 4th round, he had no idea that they would trade that pick to Buffalo so that they in turn could draft Sammy Watkins. Mayock was very close in saying that Watkins would be selected 5th overall, there was just no way he could have foretold that Buffalo would make the offer or that Cleveland would accept. The Mocks are not science, they are not accurate, Hell, half the time they don't even make sense. All they are is fun and somewhat interesting; I would hope by looking at this you too would see this. Just from basic eyeballing the list, you can see that Mike Mayock only got 5 out of 32 picks correct. Most people would call that a pretty shitty average, but in the exalted halls of Draft Mockery, Mike Mayock did pretty damned good. And to be fair, in some cases, like with Derrek Carr and Oakland, he got the player and team right, just not the round or selection number. What really galls me though? People who are even worse at this than Mayock, get PAID to make these guesses leading up to the Draft, and they can freely change their selections, 2, 3, 4, sometimes, 7 times!!
Anyway, here is my Mike Mayock Mock Draft Report. I hope you learn something from it.
PICK NO.1 HOU
JADEVEON CLOWNEY DE SOUTH CAROLINA
1 Texans Jadeveon Clowney DE
PICK NO.2 STL
GREG ROBINSON OT AUBURN
2 Rams Greg Robinson OT
PICK NO.3 JAC
KHALIL MACK OLB BUFFALO
3 Jaguars Blake Bortles QB
PICK NO.4 CLE
JAKE MATTHEWS OT TEXAS A&M
4 Bills Sammy Watkins WR
PICK NO.5 OAK
SAMMY WATKINS WR CLEMSON
5 Raiders Khalil Mack OLB
PICK NO.6 ATL
TAYLOR LEWAN OT MICHIGAN
6 Falcons Jake Matthews OT
PICK NO.7 TB
MIKE EVANS WR TEXAS A&M
7 Buccaneers Mike Evans WR
PICK NO.8 MIN
JUSTIN GILBERT CB OKLAHOMA ST.
8 Browns Justin Gilbert CB
PICK NO.9 BUF
ZACK MARTIN OT NOTRE DAME
9 Vikings Anthony Barr OLB
PICK NO.10 DET
DARQUEZE DENNARD CB MICHIGAN ST.
10 Lions Eric Ebron TE
PICK NO.11 TEN
BLAKE BORTLES QB CENTRAL FLORIDA
11 Titans Taylor Lewan OT
PICK NO.12 NYG
ERIC EBRON TE NORTH CAROLINA
12 Giants Odell Beckham WR
PICK NO.13 STL
ODELL BECKHAM WR LSU
13 Rams Aaron Donald DT
PICK NO.14 CHI
CALVIN PRYOR FS LOUISVILLE
14 Bears Kyle Fuller CB
PICK NO.15 PIT
KYLE FULLER CB VIRGINIA TECH
15 Steelers Ryan Shazier OLB
PICK NO.16 DAL
JOHNNY MANZIEL QB TEXAS A&M
16 Cowboys Zack Martin OT
PICK NO.17 BAL
C.J. MOSLEY ILB ALABAMA
Mosley is a great fit for the Ravens -- an inside linebacker who played in a 3-4 at Alabama. He makes this defense better immediately.
17 Ravens C.J. Mosley ILB
PICK NO.18 NYJ
BRANDIN COOKS WR OREGON ST.
18 Jets Calvin Pryor FS
PICK NO.19 MIA
CYRUS KOUANDJIO OT ALABAMA
19 Dolphins Ja'Wuan James OT
PICK NO.20 ARI
ANTHONY BARR OLB UCLA
20 Saints Brandin Cooks WR
PICK NO.21 GB
RYAN SHAZIER OLB OHIO ST.
21 Packers Ha Ha Clinton-Dix FS
PICK NO.22 PHI
HA HA CLINTON-DIX FS ALABAMA
22 Browns Johnny Manziel QB
PICK NO.23 KC
MARQISE LEE WR USC
23 Chiefs Dee Ford DE
PICK NO.24 CIN
AARON DONALD DT PITTSBURGH
24 Bengals Darqueze Dennard CB
PICK NO.25 SD
BRADLEY ROBY CB OHIO ST.
25 Chargers Jason Verrett CB
PICK NO.26 CLE
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER QB LOUISVILLE
26 Eagles Marcus Smith OLB
PICK NO.27 NO
KELVIN BENJAMIN WR FLORIDA ST.
27 Cardinals Deone Bucannon SS
PICK NO.28 OAK
DEREK CARR QB FRESNO ST.
28 Panthers Kelvin Benjamin WR
PICK NO.29 NE
JACE AMARO TE TEXAS TECH
29 Patriots Dominique Easley DT
PICK NO.30 SF
STEPHON TUITT DE NOTRE DAME
30 49ers Jimmie Ward SS
PICK NO.31 DEN
JASON VERRETT CB TCU
31 Broncos Bradley Roby CB
PICK NO.32 SEA
STANLEY JEAN-BAPTISTE CB NEBRASKA
32 Vikings Teddy Bridgewater QB
No comments:
Post a Comment